Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
