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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the current race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still